Nothing scares candidates and their campaign teams more than the thought that some unexpected crisis will occur in the last few weeks or days before the election. How will that event affect the outcome? What can they do to anticipate the unexpected? What can they do to be ready?
The two major presidential campaigns usually have teams of experts secretly meeting to anticipate crises and prepare for them. In this series, we imagine the events those teams could be planning about and how the staff may be “inoculating” their candidates.
Crisis 3: Israel-Hizballah War
The Scenario: Ceasefire talks over Gaza are not productive and Israel continues its attacks on Rahfa and elsewhere. Israeli settlers in the West Bank become more emboldened and attack Palestinians more frequently, causing increasingly large clashes.
To show their support of the Palestinians, Hizballah cross-border shooting incidents along the Israeli-Lebanon border become more frequent, as do Hizballah rocket salvos into Israel (and Israeli Air Force retaliation bombing of Hizballah sites in Lebanon). In mid-June, Hizballah launches a salvo of 200 rockets to gauge the location and capability of Israeli defenses.
Netanyahu’s government promised the sixty thousand Israelis who had been evacuated from towns near Lebanon that they could return home in time for the opening of the school year on September 1st. Right-wing politicians pressure Netanyahu to invade Lebanon and create a “sanitized zone” free of Hizballah in the south.
Political dynamics in Hizballah and Israel heighten the chances of another war in south Lebanon. Then, Israeli intelligence receives word of a planned Hizballah war council on July 8th in Jenin, a town in the Bekka Valley that has long been a Hizballah stronghold. The Israeli Air Force conducts a large attack on Jenin, resulting in significant civilian casualties and collateral damage. The surviving Hizballah leadership agrees on an all-out attack on Israelis with ballistic missiles, rockets, and drones.
On the night of July 9th, twelve hundred drones fly into Israel from Lebanon and Syria, targeting air defense radars and Iron Dome/Arrow anti-missile missiles. Mid-morning of July 10th, three thousand short-range rockets reign down on Israeli military positions in the north of the country. Simultaneously, five hundred ballistic missiles are launched at targets further south, including Tel Aviv and West Jerusalem.
The missiles saturate the Israeli defenses, their precision guidance systems resulting in direct hits on the Matcal Tower in the Kirya (headquarters of the Israeli Defense Ministry) in Tel Aviv, the Mossad intelligence headquarters in Gliot, and the Prime Minister’s office in West Jerusalem. Israel will not reveal officially the casualty toll, nor will it allow Israeli media to report figures. American media, citing Israeli sources, place the death toll at “over a thousand.”
Netanyahu orders a full mobilization of reservists. After two days of heavy Israeli bombing of Lebanon, the Israeli Army crosses the Lebanon border with the stated goal of pushing Hizballah to the far side of the Litani River, 30 km north of the border. Initial fighting is intense, with heavy losses on both sides. Iran threatens to become involved if Israeli does not stop. Pro and anti-Israeli rallies occur in major cities across the US.
Biden Response: Biden should call Netanyahu and offer diplomatic and military assistance. Prior to the Israeli Army crossing the border, Biden should try to negotiate a Hizballah withdrawal to the north. He should continue those diplomatic efforts as the fighting continues, even as he agrees to rush deliveries of ammunition and parts to Israel (including the large bombs that he had earlier withheld). In a prime-time address, Biden should warn Iran not to become involved in the fighting or attack Israel with missiles, as it had earlier in the year. He should order the Pentagon to surge US air and naval forces to the region to deter Iran. Overall, Biden should be seen as coming to Israel’s defense, urging Israelis to minimize collateral damage and being visibly active in diplomatic efforts to end the fighting.
Inoculating Biden: Biden should give a major speech at the National Defense University outlining all of the efforts the US has made to seek a ceasefire in Gaza, to aid the Palestinian refugees, and to prevent Israeli forces from harming civilians. He should, however, also stress America’s longstanding pledge to protect the Israeli democratic state. He should call upon Americans to support all three pillars of his policy: defend Israel, respect the rights of the Palestinians, provide them with humanitarian assistance, and work hard for a ceasefire and peace. Biden should note to those on the left in his party that failure to re-elect him will result in a president who will give Netanyahu the green light for further fighting, a president who will care nothing for the Palestinian’s rights or a peace process.
Finally, he should explicitly warn both Hizballah and Iran not to exacerbate the Gaza crisis but rather to engage in diplomatic efforts to step back from the brink.
Trump Response: Trump should completely embrace Netanyahu in a time of crisis while blaming the aggressiveness of Hizballah and Iran on Biden’s “coddling the ayatollahs.” He should, at the same time, note that there is no need for the US to get involved in another Middle East War, “the Israelis, with the assistance we can give them, can handle Hizballah and Hamas like something nobody has ever seen.”
Inoculating Trump: Trump should meet with Netanyahu when the Israeli Prime Minister comes to the US to address the Congress in July. In a joint press conference, he should echo Netanyahu, warning Hizballah and Iran to “back off.”
Richard Clarke had roles in the Defense Department, State Department (Assistant Secretary), and White House National Security Council (for three presidents) for thirty years. He then was Chairman of the Middle East Institute for ten years.
