There was a time when Super Tuesday mattered. One or both of the two major parties had contested primaries, and Super Tuesday was a make-or-break event. If we go back to 2020, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were neck and neck battling it out for the Democratic nomination. Super Tuesday was a defining moment in the race. It marked the moment when Joe Biden surged in the race and began solidifying his standing as the candidate to beat, while Bernie Sanders was starting to show cracks in his upstart candidacy.
Fast forward four years, and this race is as dramatic as when the rabbit faced the turtle in their legendary battle. At least that battle ended with a dramatic finish. Super Tuesday is looking like a super dud.
On the Democratic side, Joe Biden’s biggest challenger is an uncommitted ballot. While he dominated the Michigan primary last Tuesday, President Biden showed weaknesses in his coalition. In Michigan, with its large population of Arab Americans, 13.2% of Democrats gave their support to an uncommitted ballot. The uncommitted vote came in second place over Marianne Williamson, who finished a distant third with 3% of the vote. A message was being sent loud and clear from Arab Americans: Joe Biden, you better rethink your policy in the Israeli-Hamas War, or we may sit this one out, or even worse, vote for Donald Trump.
While I personally do not think President Biden will suffer from that kind of uncommitted vote turnout on Super Tuesday (the Arab American vote is not as large), a signal has been sent to the incumbent. Do not take us for granted, or you will feel our wrath come November. Moreover, President Biden’s poll numbers are slipping among young people and minorities. These are groups that Biden can ill afford to lose. In the unlikely event that the uncommitted vote gains momentum on Super Tuesday, Biden is in trouble.
On the Republican side, Super Tuesday has a bit more drama, but not by much. Donald Trump has the nomination all but wrapped up, and Super Tuesday will be a coronation of sorts for him. However, the pesky Nikki Haley is still hanging on for dear life. She may decide to finally drop out after Super Tuesday or continue her quixotic campaign by being a thorn in Trump’s side.
Like President Biden, the Michigan primary was a problem for Donald Trump. Nikki Haley garnered almost 27% of the vote. While that may not seem like a strong turnout for Haley, it shows a potential fissure in the Trump voting bloc. Moderate Republicans and independents are still wary of Trump, and their support for Haley shows that Trump may be incredibly vulnerable come November when these groups can determine the outcome of the general election.
While it is highly doubtful that Nikki Haley will substantially cut into Donald Trump’s delegate lead come Super Tuesday, there is a small window for her to make some gains. The majority of states on Super Tuesday allow for unaffiliated voters to participate in primaries. In theory, this seems like a great opportunity for Nikki Haley to recreate the coalition that led to decent showings in Michigan, South Carolina, and New Hampshire. However, the delegate math is still against her. Most of the remaining states in the Republican primary calendar are winner-take-all. There is little to no chance that, even with the help of unaffiliated voters, she can capture a majority of one state, let alone enough states to make a dent in Trump’s delegate dominance.
While Nikki Haley may continue her candidacy past Super Tuesday, it will be because she wants to keep poking the bear. Despite Haley’s plea for the Republican party to return to its traditional conservative roots, the party is firmly in the hands of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.
Dr. Groper is a Lecturer in Political Science at the California State University, Los Angeles. He is an expert in American Campaigns and Elections.
