Ordinarily, this kind of match-up – a former president fighting to stage a comeback versus a popular ex-governor in her home state – would be a titanic clash. Add in the former president’s chronic legal woes and the sharpened tone from his opponent, and you would expect the kind of tense election night that keeps commentators up until the wee hours.
Instead, on Saturday, we saw former President Donald Trump defeat former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley by 20 points, 59.8%-39.5%. In fact, the victory was so overwhelming that the AP called the race for Trump less than a minute after polls closed.
And yet, there may be some silver lining in these results for Haley and her supporters. Only a week before the election, polling showed her behind by over 30%, but in the days approaching the election, her vote share ticked up bit by bit. There is a strong argument to be made that this was the result of her intense campaigning. She did a barnstorming tour of the state, which already knew her well, and upped the aggressiveness of her attacks on President Trump, not only hammering him on his controversial statements related to NATO and his support among black voters, but also repeatedly raising the issue of his advanced age and cognitive fitness, thereby painting him with the same brush the Trump campaign and its many surrogates have been using to attack sitting President Joe Biden.
Were Haley to continue replicating this approach – intensive on-the-ground campaigning paired with effective, aggressive rhetoric and massive advertising spending by her own campaign and supportive outside groups – it would be a potential way to continue closing the gap nationally. However, as the primary calendar moves from its slow, one-state-at-a-time initial pace to a more accelerated, multi-state dynamic on Super Tuesday and beyond, the ability to conduct that type of campaign becomes increasingly challenged. Even with dramatically improved fundraising, there are human limits on Haley’s most valuable resource in a race like this: her own time and presence.
With all this considered, in a normal year, one would think that Haley’s home-state defeat would yield a proud but humble announcement that she was exiting the race and bowing to calls from numerous party leaders to unite the ticket behind Trump. Of course, nothing about this election year is ordinary, so it should surprise no one that Haley says she plans to stay in the race for weeks to come.
Haley’s decision has many election watchers and political insiders speculating about why she persists in the face of almost certain defeat. There is no shortage of potential explanations, including taking seriously Haley’s own argument that voters deserve a primary with more voices and choices than just Trump; she did, after all, colorfully argue that voters deserve more than a “Soviet-style election.” Other, perhaps more plausible explanations have a more political logic at their core, such as her potential desire to position herself for a potential 2028 run.
There are some who think she may even be gunning for a spot on this year’s Republican ticket, whether as the candidate herself should Trump’s legal woes sideline him or as Trump’s running mate. Those who say the running mate position is unlikely may well be correct, but Trump is nothing if not unpredictable and has recently included Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on a list of potential running mates, despite DeSantis’s earlier harsh criticism of him.
Whatever transpires between now and November, one thing is clear: Governor Haley fought mightily in her home state, bringing the energy and attitude of a serious challenger and a significant political force for the future Republican Party. But President Trump remains the GOP’s Goliath, and this time David missed.
Justin Vaughn is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina.
