President Trump was hoping for an easy, Delcy Rodríguez (Venezuela) – like, outcome in Iran. A pliant leader even if it’s the same regime. He’s not getting it, at least not yet. Instead, the Iranians are trading one Khamenei for another. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. That will forestall a coming disagreement between the U.S. and Israel as to how and when this war should end. Neither Trump nor Netanyahu will find another Khamenei acceptable unless the apple has fallen very far from the tree, which is unlikely. As of this writing he has yet to speak and has little to no public record. But the expectation is that he’s a hardliner like his old man. So the short-term agreement between the U.S. and Israel on Khamenei will mask the split that might arise if as a less doctrinaire candidate should emerge either because Khamenei is taken out, or otherwise cannot hold the job. Trump told Dana Bash on Friday that Iran need not end up a democracy and that he was willing to work with a religious leader so long as that person treated the U.S. and Israel well. Trump is more impulsive and impatient than Netanyahu. The former is eager to claim victory and move on to Cuba so he can complete the trifecta. Bibi is more intent on nation building in a way that precludes a return to Iran’s status quo. If you don’t agree this is a burgeoning disagreement, just consider how we got here: Just one week ago, Secretary Rubio said the U.S. acted because Israel was about to… and so it was a pre-emptive, defensive measure. That sounded like the U.S. had abdicated the decision to go to war with Iran to Israel. The following day the President said no, it was he who forced Israel’s hand, not the other way around. (Rubio quickly blamed the media and said he’d been taken out of context.) The episode was revealing. And today’s news from Axios is that Israel’s strikes on Iran’s fuel depots drew disagreement from the U.S. Why? The U.S. worries that any strikes on infrastructure that services ordinary Iranians could cause them to rally around their flag. Which reminds me, thus far there has been no public revolt by Iranians against their government, nor any cracks visible in the regime. Maybe that’s a consequence of the killing of an estimated 30,000 who rebelled before the recent hostilities. As Admiral Stavridis pointed out to me recently, perhaps Iran already eliminated the warriors among its opposition.
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